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Yearning for Simpler Times

Written by Lisa Woodside, CFP®, CPA on .

You can't help but long for simpler times when the U.S. manufactured and sold more than it bought and investing wasn't the equivalent of riding a roller coaster.

The last 10 to 11 years have been a big shock to investors after the 1980's and 1990's when stocks pretty much went steadily up.

We have seen decades-long growth of debt and in entitlements in developed countries to the point where the bond markets are starting to rebel.

With market volatility, computerized trading, credit default swaps, and central bank intervention, it is easy to get disgusted and stay on the sidelines figuring the game is rigged. It is easy to be paralyzed and be afraid to do anything.

It is important to not let the day-to-day volatility and noise in the markets overwhelm you.

Common sense tells us that things in Europe are not going to end well. The debt levels of the PIIGS are unsustainable over time. So are the debt levels of Japan and the UK. The U.S. is not far behind.

Politicians will take the politically expedient route and the central banks will print money instead of letting the financial markets mean revert and purge out their excesses, which would be healthier in the long run.

What can we do?

We can be patient and protect our capital while we wait this out and not let market "noise" or "fear of missing out" push us into taking risks we can't afford.

We can use the coming downturn to our advantage. By the time this is over, high quality bonds and stocks will go on sale again like they did in 2008.

We will have the opportunity to lock in higher dividend and interest income if we are patient and keep our powder drive.

You don't need average returns of 6% to 8% each and every year. If stocks do retest their 2009 lows and you are patient and wait to invest until the long term trend turns back up, the 30% to 60% or higher gains you realize over the next 3 to 5 years will more than make up for protecting your capital now as we wait to see where things are headed.

Being patient and having a disciplined investment philosophy at times like this is critical. We want stock prices to come to us. The prices of quality dividend stocks and bonds are not cheap, especially given the likelihood that we are about to experience another major global recession.

This may not be the market we want, but it is the market we got. We need to accept the current reality and not let greed, fear or impatience cause us to make mistakes. In the meantime, we need to focus on the simple joys in life and live for the moment. Don't let the turkeys get you down!

Remember that jumping in and catching the majority of a big move up or down when it does hit, can more than make up for being patient and disciplined while the market chops sideways with a lot of volatility.

We Americans are resilient. We have to have faith that when this Debt Supercycle ends, we will learn our lesson and not let the big banks control our government and build a stronger future that is not dependent on debt, fancy derivatives, or fast profits.